Every Sunday, our full Spectrum of politicos give their fact-based takes on what to expect this week from our backyard to Tallahassee and Washington.
Gary Darling
Spectrum News Producer
The Speaker, the House and the gavel
Did you see that blockbuster movie this past week?
Everybody was talking about it. “Home Alone 2023: Kevin’s Very, Very Bad Day.” Oh, wait… it wasn’t a movie? It was real life? My apologies. It read like a Hollywood blockbuster.
So here we are without a Speaker of the House. What does that mean? It means nothing will get done on the House side of Congress until a new Speaker is elected.
The big questions are…
- How long will it take to elect a new Speaker?
- Who will that new Speaker be?
In the meantime, what an interesting nine months it has been for Kevin McCarthy. When the Republicans took back control of the House last November, all eyes were on McCarthy to assume the leadership role. Little did he know at the time what a bumpy road lay ahead. Fifteen rounds of voting happened before deals were brokered and Republicans came together to elect McCarthy, but perhaps it was those brokered deals that were his downfall. In the end, all it took was one dissatisfied Republican member of the House, in this case, Congressman Matt Gaetz from District 1 here in Florida, to file that motion to vacate.
The last time there was a motion to vacate? 1910.
The last time a sitting Speaker was removed from office in the United States? Never.
Here’s the big question, especially for Kevin McCarthy: was it worth it? Was it worth the deal-brokering and the fifteen rounds of voting and the relentless attacks from within his own party just to command the gavel for 269 days? Well, no matter how you look at it, it was definitely a Speakership for the history books.
Holly Gregory
Spectrum News Anchor
The importance of Iowa
As you read this on our first fall-like Sunday in Florida, fast forward to the dead of winter in Iowa, specifically January 15.
We are 99 days away from the Iowa caucus and Governor Ron DeSantis has put all his eggs in that basket.
So now that we are under the 100 day mark to the first contest in the Republican primary, let’s do a quick check on how things are going.
Six months after launching his campaign, DeSantis is finally going scorched earth against former President Donald Trump.
At a campaign stop in Tampa, the governor tried out a few new lines of attack:
On Trump skipping the debates: “Nobody, especially anybody that couldn’t even stop Joe Biden. You are not, you are not entitled to be nominated. You’ve got to earn the nomination. You’ve got to show how you’re going to be able to get the job done.”
On who can is more popular in Florida: “Well, I won the state by 3. He won by 20. So you tell me which is better.”
On Trump’s electability: “I don’t think anybody voted for Biden, okay. They were voting against Trump. That was why they did it. I mean, let’s just be honest, he energized Democrats. You could have John Kennedy walk through the door right now, and he wouldn’t energize Democrats as much as Donald Trump does. That’s just the reality.”
Speaking of reality, if you believe the polls, it’s brutal for DeSantis
According to one new poll, DeSantis’ support is falling off a steep cliff.
The Marquette Law School survey revealed DeSantis has lost two-thirds of his support from March, when he was only 5 points behinds Trump.
In March, DeSantis was at 35% support in this poll.
At the end of September, that had nose-dived to 12%.
The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Trump at almost 60%. Far above all the other Republican candidates combined.
With that type of lead, Trump’s campaign is calling on the Republican National Committee to cancel its third debate. All this despite the fact that no state has completed a primary or caucus yet.
And then, there is the money race.
The Trump campaign announced he raised more than $45 million in the 3rd quarter, far surpassing DeSantis, who reported raising $15 million during the same time frame.
The Trump campaign mocked DeSantis’ smaller fundraising haul questioning in DeSantis would be able to hold on through the Iowa caucus.
On the other hand, during his Tampa campaign stop, DeSantis said this about Trump’s fundraising, “Where’s that money going to? Isn’t it going to a lot of lawyers?”
No doubt it is going to a lot of lawyers. But Trump’s legal troubles are only helping him in the polls, so far anyway.
There’s 99 days for DeSantis to stage the great Iowa comeback. We’ll see if he can bring some Florida heat to a cold Iowa night in January.
Greg Angel
Spectrum News Anchor
The loudest minority
I’ll admit this is a bit of a read, but really it begins and ends with the same question of curiosity: Why don’t people vote?
There are any number of quotes out there that say “showing up” is the biggest first step in any effort of progress. Simply getting to the starting line itself.
It’s fair to compare that mindset to elections and government.
Want to have a hand on the lever of government control? Show up.
It’s not uncommon for a small share of voters to control policy and government positions because so many potential voters decide not to have a role in the process.
This is important to be mindful of, as we are less than a month from November’s elections.
The ballots are not as robust as presidential-year elections, perhaps with benefit and/or on purpose.
In November, Orlando voters will have to decide whether incumbent Mayor Buddy Dyer deserves another term, or whether one of three challengers should get a turn.
Orlando voters in weeks will also decide races for multiple city commission seats.
Cape Canaveral voters have to fill seats on the city council, as do voters in Melbourne, Rockledge, Indian Harbour, and elsewhere in Brevard, Lake, Seminole, and other Central Florida counties.
Voters in Orange and Osceola counties will decide the fate of the race for the Florida House District 35 special election.
There are a slew of elections happening in weeks, and it’s important to remember that elections matter. Representation matters.
This is your opportunity to have a say in policy and government affairs. It turns out, so few care to have a say.
At the end of October 2019, days before the November 2019 election, there were 176,387 registered voters in the City of Orlando.
Of the 176,387 eligible voter for the November 2019 election, only 22,296 voters turned out to cast a ballot.
Mayor Buddy Dyer won re-election in a landslide, earning 71.79% of the votes cast, which amounted to only 15,957 actual votes. Challengers Sam Ings (3,883) and Aretha Simons (2,387) earned far fewer votes in the election.
The latest data available from Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office shows there are actually fewer Orlando voters now in 2023 compared to 2019: 166,398.
Even still, don't expect but a fraction to turn out.
Local elections aren’t alone in begging the question of why so many people don’t vote. Consider the run for Florida Governor in recent years.
2018: 13.2 million TOTAL VOTERS
- 4.6 million total Republican voters
- 4.9 million total Democratic voters
- 3.5 million+ total NPA/Other voters
In that election, 8.2 million voters cast ballots. (1M+ more votes than the 2022 election).
- DeSantis: 4.0M (49.6%)
- Gillum: 4.0M (49.2%)
DeSantis won his first term as Florida Governor by a razor thin margin of 32,463 votes, all while 5M+ voters opted not to cast a ballot.
2022: 14.5 million TOTAL VOTERS
- 5.2 million total Republican voters
- 4.9 million total Democratic voters
- 3.9 million+ total NPA/Other voters
In this election, 7.7 million voters cast ballots.
- DeSantis: 4.6M (59.4%)
- Crist: 3.1M (40.0%)
DeSantis won re-election by a margin of 1.5 million votes, all while 6.7 million Floridians didn’t even cast a ballot. Nearly as many people who cast ballots took no part in the process for one reason or another.
The data shows DeSantis won re-election with more voters sitting out of the process.
It’s great for headlines to talk percentages, whereas a candidate can tout winning a large majority of votes and it’s true. It may not mean they won the majority of approval or support of ALL residents, but in the end, what only matters is those who actually cast ballots because earning actual, real votes is how you win. Candidates earn nothing from those who don’t vote.
Which further begs the question: why do people choose not to participate in elections? Why do people choose not to vote?
Remember, you get what you pay for and you get what you vote for.
Find your local Supervisor of Elections.
Ybeth Bruzual
Spectrum News Anchor
Campaign mailers are getting big
Size matters. We’ve heard the commercials, and this time it got me thinking. Not about a local law firm, but about campaign mailers.
Have you noticed? Many are JUMBO sized these days. I am talking about the size of a placemat (more on that at the end of this article.)
Gosh... I remember when campaign mailers were the size of a postcard or index card.
In a survey conducted for United States Postal Service, Florida and Ohio voters said in 2018 that, “47% felt political mail had an impact on their voting decision.”
A few days ago, I saw a mailer that was about 8 in. by 10 in. paid for by the Florida Democratic Party urging voters to re-elect Buddy Dyer as mayor of Orlando. By the way, it’s a non-partisan race.
Mailers are part of a long tradition of American political history, according to the Office of Inspector General.
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Do they work?
According to many experts in the field, they are cost effective and can target a specific area or address.
The winner? The printing companies who are smiling big and making money to make these full color, glossy mailers. Cha-ching! 💲💲
And, oh, don’t get me started on the outdated photos of some candidates on mailers. 🤐
And the money, who pays for these mailers? Seems there’s a mailer debacle brewing in Minneola regarding this very topic. I’ve reached out to some candidates in a particular race and am waiting to hear back about who is paying for a flashy, multi-page mailer that recently went out.
In the end, I personally love to recycle campaign mailers? I use the smaller ones as coasters and the bigger ones as placemats.
Happy recycling!
Jason Delgado
Spectrum News Reporter
A new era for the death penalty
Florida is in the midst of a death penalty renaissance under Governor Ron DeSantis. Not only is DeSantis executing inmates at a faster rate than at any other point in his administration, fellow Republican lawmakers are rewriting the book.
Hear me out. There are two major changes to state law that are worth noting within the last year.
Florida is now allowing the death penalty against a child rapist, though the new law is illegal. It goes against U.S. Supreme Court precedent.
Nevertheless, here’s what DeSantis said when the law took effect earlier this month: “The minimum sentence is life in prison without parole. In Florida, anyone who harms children in such a horrific way will never walk free.”
Secondly, lawmakers under DeSantis lowered the threshold needed to impose the death penalty. Unanimous juries are no longer required. Moving forward, only 8 of 12 jurors are now needed.
All this, plus more, ushers — at least in my eyes — a new chapter for capital punishment in Florida.
It’s worth noting, though, that Florida doesn’t have a stellar track record when it comes to convicting the right guy or girl. According to the Death Penalty Information Center, Florida leads the nation with the number of innocent people freed from death row. There’s been 30 since 1976. A fact like that is why so Floridians many are opposed to the death penalty. Some even protest outside of prisons ahead of executions.
Among those leading critics in Florida is the Catholic Church. In fact, they urged DeSantis to spare the life of Florida’s most recently executed inmate, Michael Zack. In a letter to DeSantis, the church recognized Zack’s “horrific crimes” but warned that “state-sanctioned killing will only further fuel the growing societal disrespect for the dignity of human life.”
Zack is now the sixth inmate executed in Florida this year. He died of lethal injection on Tuesday, convicted in the 1996 killings of two North Florida women. As a child, the church noted, Zack suffered “severe physical and sexual abuse at the hands of his stepfather.” They, among others, believed Zack deserved a stay as he suffered several ailments, including PTSD, brain damage and fetal alcohol syndrome.
In-Depth Political Coverage
1. Voting registration groups help Bay area students get involved
In the lobby of Saint Petersburg College, Professor Tara Newsom teamed up with the League of Women Voters of St. Petersburg to reach out to students to make sure they are registered to vote.
2. Florida members of Congress talk short-term budget deal, McCarthy
Following Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s decision to work with Democrats as Speaker to temporarily fund the government and prevent a shutdown, Florida Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz launched an effort to oust him. But, Florida Democrats in the House did not side with McCarthy during Tuesday’s motion to vacate vote.
3. Hillsborough commissioner to propose railroad safety improvements after fatal Plant City crash
The family that was killed in a train crash in Plant City will be laid to rest on Wednesday.
4. Ex-Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran chosen as New College's new president
Negotiations will begin soon to make Richard Corcoran the official next president of New College of Florida.
5. 'I will not run for Speaker again': Political analysts weigh in on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's removal
The U.S. House of Representatives will have a new House Speaker after a historic vote to remove now-former speaker Kevin McCarthy from the position.
6. Teacher contract negotiations continue across the Tampa Bay area
Only two counties have ratified contracts with teachers in the Tampa Bay area, while the others are at different stages of negotiations.
7. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart discusses House speakership race
Following the removal of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker, South Florida Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart is urging his GOP colleagues to unite behind a replacement as soon as possible.
Former President Donald Trump is officially backing Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, the pugnacious House Judiciary Committee chairman and longtime Trump defender, to succeed Kevin McCarthy as House speaker.
"Congressman Jim Jordan has been a STAR long before making his very successful journey to Washington, D.C., representing Ohio's 4th Congressional District," Trump wrote on his Truth Social site shortly after midnight Friday. "He will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!"