TAMPA, Fla. — Tropical Storm Milton is still in the Western Gulf. It will move very little through Sunday.

But on Monday, an upper-level trough will start pulling it northeast toward Florida.

Many of the models are showing strengthening Monday through Wednesday as it moves east-northeast. The upper trough and a cold front across the northern Gulf will steer Milton east-northeast toward the Florida Coast.

There will likely be a hurricane near the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  This will likely be a large storm, with a large wind-field. So more areas will get possibly 100-120 mph winds.

Ahead of Milton, another low near Florida will bring heavy rain across the state Sunday through Monday. Then Tuesday and Wednesday heavy rain moves in ahead of Milton. So a Flood Watch is in effect for Sunday through Wednesday.

• Milton impacts on Wednesday
• More hazards than Helene
• Expect flooding rain, storm surge, and winds possibly over 100 mph
• Flood Watch Sunday-Wednesday
• Other watches will likely be issued Sunday

Flooding rain will be more of a hazard with this one compared to Helene, since there will be 2 to 3 days of heavy rain before Milton arrives.

Storm surge will be highly dependent exactly where it tracks. Unlike Helene, this system will be making a perpendicular approach to the coastline, so locations south of any landfall point would be where storm surge would be. If the center crosses the coast south of Tampa Bay, expect a much lower surge threat. But if the center crosses Pinellas County or north, storm surge will be deadly.

With clean-up efforts and debris removal still very much underway along out coast, the impacts of heavy rain, wind, and storm surge would be higher. We will continue to closely monitor the latest trends throughout the weekend and update you on any changes and keep checking in for updates.

GFS/EURO 7-Day Rainfall Models