Helene strengthened into a hurricane Wednesday morning with 80 mph winds off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, and will work its way toward the Gulf of Mexico later in the day.
Helene is expected to pass to the west of Central Florida on Thursday as a hurricane, and should make landfall Thursday evening somewhere along Florida's Big Bend coastline.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Brevard, Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Sumter, Volusia, Flagler, and central and eastern Marion counties.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for western Marion County.
Intensification of Helene is expected as we go through the next couple of days, and potential rapid intensification is possible as we head throughout the day on Thursday.
In addition to tropical alerts, flood watches have been issued for Sumter and Marion counties due to the potential of heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding.
Rainfall rates of several inches an hour, upon approach of the system Thursday night, could lead to low-lying locations being the most susceptible to flooding. The biggest flood threat will be during Thursday evening into the overnight hours through very early Friday morning. Most locations will pick up between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, but a few isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches could be possible.
The strongest winds look to remain well offshore of Florida's west coast, limiting the wind potential for Central Florida. However, Helene is expected to have a rather large wind radius compared to other Gulf of Mexico storms. This means tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph could be likely for much of Central Florida, especially along the I-4 corridor from Orange county west to Tampa.
Tornadoes are possible Thursday night into Friday morning as the storm passes by to our west. Have a way to get alerts for tornadoes, like the Spectrum News app. It's free and available in your app store.
The outer bands of Helene will begin late evening Wednesday, but will pick up beyond Thursday morning. The worst of these bands will come Thursday evening through the overnight period into the early morning hours of Friday. Conditions will begin to improve beyond 9 a.m. Friday, but some wrap around moisture will keep at least a shot of some showers going Friday afternoon.
Winds will remain breezy on Friday as the storm passes north, but winds should decrease by the weekend.
A best case scenario for Orlando will be a track up the western side of the forecast cone. This would keep the heaviest rainfall and the strongest winds well offshore.
In this scenario, rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches would be likely with isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches for the western zones of Marion, Sumter and Lake counties. Winds would be below tropical storm force for the east coast of Florida with a few tropical storm force gusts of 40 to 45 mph for Marion and Sumter counties. Winds sharply decrease the farther east you go.
Inland flooding would not be a concern and the tornado threat would be very low as the best spin would remain over the Gulf of Mexico waters.
A worst case scenario for Orlando will be a track up the eastern side of the forecast cone. This would bring heavier rainfall to our western zones with stronger winds to all of east central Florida.
In this scenario, rain accumulations of 4 to 5 inches would be likely with isolated totals of 6 to 8 inches for the western zones of Marion, Sumter and Lake counties. Winds would likely reach tropical storm force — in excess of 40 mph — along our eastern coast with stronger winds for Marion, Lake and Sumter counties, likely in excess of 60 mph.
Inland flooding would become a concern for those in Sumter, Marion and Lake counties. Flash flooding could occur during landfall. The tornado threat would also be higher, with a change of several tornado warnings across the metro areas of I-4 to the west coast of Florida.
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