Supporters of Florida constitutional Amendment 2 — the medical marijuana initiative — may have a big battle ahead of them in the weeks leading up to Election Day. That's because numbers in News 13's exclusive Florida Decides Poll show backers are backing away from the issue.
We asked 781 likely voters this question:
This fall's ballot includes Amendment 2, which "Allows the medical use of marijuana… as determined by a licensed Florida physician." Do you think you will vote yes or no?
Of the likely voters, 48 percent said they would vote yes, and 44 percent would vote no. The remaining 8 percent is still undecided.
That's a sharp shift from the 58 percent who supported the amendment in News 13's previous Florida Decides Poll, conducted in August.
News 13 Political Analyst Michelle Ertel (R) believes people are starting to actually read the ballot question, research the content, and may be coming to a different conclusion than just reading a headline about medical marijuana.
"The flop is because people are starting to understand what I stated long ago, that this isn't about medical marijuana; it is about legalization," said Ertel.
This was the first time language from the actual amendment was also used in our poll question. Here is how the entire amendment reads:
Allows the medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating diseases as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients' medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not authorize violations of federal law or any non-medical use, possession or production of marijuana.
"A month ago, people were voting on the concept of medical marijuana. Now, after taking a look at it, they have a problem with the way it is worded, and possibly that it is a constitutional amendment," said Dr. David Colburn, interim director of the Bob Graham Center for Public Service.
Even if the 8 percent who said they didn't know how they would vote all ended up voting yes in November, the measure would still have a difficult time passing. The combined "yes" and "don't know" votes in our Florida Decides Poll add up to 56 percent, falling short of the 60 percent required to pass the amendment.
Plus, according to Colburn, the majority of likely voters who are currently saying they don't know how they will vote in November are leaning toward a "no" vote.
"I think that sometimes we don't give our electorate enough credit, because they believe in something and they hear that it is not true," said Ertel. "I think that, maybe this time, they did go and look a little bit further and look into it."
News 13 Political Analyst Jeremiah Jaspon (D) contributes the shift to a very aggressive "No on 2" campaign.
"The differentiation in the polls is mind boggling," said Jaspon. "To see the numbers come down so dramatically, you can attribute it to the fact that the 'No' crowd is spending money to get the message out."
Staying organized may be an issue for the "Yes on 2" campaign, according to Christopher McCarty, director of the UF Survey Research Center and director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
According to McCarty, the Yes camp needs to push for younger voter turnout.
"If the young show up, they would have a profound impact on Amendment 2," said McCarty. "Not only that, they would have a profound impact on the governor's race."
Colburn added Orlando personal injury lawyer John Morgan, the primary backer of Amendment 2, needs to take a backseat from the cameras and limelight and let testimonials tell the story of why medical marijuana should pass.
"Let those who are using medical marijuana because they are sick become the face of the issue," said Colburn.
Poll Question Index
View complete breakdown of voters polled:
- How do you think you will vote on Amendment 2? ▼
- Amendment 2 breakdown by Born Again Christians ▼
- Amendment 2 breakdown by religious service attendance ▼
Poll Results
This fall's ballot includes Amendment 2, which 'Allows the medical use of marijuana… as determined by a licensed Florida physician.' How do you think you will vote on Amendment 2?
YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ALL | 48% | 44% | 7% | 1% |
PARTY | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Democrats | 60% | 30% | 8% | 1% |
Republicans | 33% | 61% | 5% | 1% |
Other | 49% | 51% | . | . |
Independents | 55% | 37% | 7% | 2% |
MEDIA MARKET | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Fort Myers | 42% | 56% | 3% | . |
Jacksonville | 38% | 54% | 4% | 4% |
Miami | 55% | 37% | 6% | 3% |
Orlando | 44% | 49% | 7% | . |
Other | 49% | 39% | 12% | . |
Pensacola | 58% | 29% | 13% | . |
Tampa Bay | 51% | 43% | 5% | 1% |
West Palm Beach | 45% | 43% | 12% | . |
RACE | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Other | 47% | 35% | 14% | 4% |
Black | 53% | 35% | 9% | 4% |
White | 47% | 46% | 6% | 0% |
HISPANIC | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
No | 49% | 43% | 7% | 1% |
Yes | 35% | 54% | 8% | 4% |
Don't Know | 84% | 16% | . | . |
Refused Answer | 59% | 32% | 9% | . |
GEOGRAPHIC AREA | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
South | 50% | 43% | 6% | 1% |
North | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% |
Don't Know/Refused | 46% | 54% | . | . |
AGE GROUP | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–24 | 63% | 32% | 2% | 4% |
25–34 | 74% | 20% | 6% | . |
35–44 | 55% | 35% | 8% | 2% |
45–59 | 50% | 42% | 6% | 1% |
60+ | 37% | 56% | 7% | 1% |
AGE GROUP II | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–60 | 57% | 35% | 6% | 1% |
61+ | 36% | 56% | 7% | 1% |
SEX | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Female | 49% | 40% | 10% | 2% |
Male | 47% | 49% | 4% | 0% |
HOUSEHOLD INCOME | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
> $150,000 | 65% | 34% | 1% | . |
$100,000 – $150,000 | 58% | 36% | 5% | 1% |
$60,000 – $100,000 | 54% | 40% | 6% | . |
$40,000 – $60,000 | 47% | 43% | 8% | 2% |
$20,000 – $40,000 | 43% | 50% | 7% | . |
< $20,000 | 56% | 40% | . | 4% |
Don't Know | 22% | 53% | 25% | . |
Refused Answer | 33% | 54% | 11% | 2% |
RELIGION | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Other | 49% | 43% | 9% | . |
No Affiliation | 71% | 23% | 5% | 1% |
Muslim | . | 100% | . | . |
Jewish | 66% | 26% | 9% | . |
Mormon | 38% | 62% | . | . |
Catholic | 37% | 54% | 9% | 1% |
Protestant | 42% | 51% | 6% | 0% |
Don't Know | 100% | . | . | . |
Refused Answer | 41% | 33% | 6% | 19% |
VOTING METHOD | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Haven't Decided Yet | 54% | 36% | 9% | . |
Absentee Ballot | 50% | 42% | 6% | 2% |
Early Voting | 50% | 41% | 6% | 3% |
On Election Day | 45% | 48% | 7% | 0% |
Not Planning to Vote | . | 100% | . | . |
Don't Know | 52% | 48% | . | . |
Refused Answer | . | 100% | . | . |
Amendment 2 breakdown by Born Again Christians
Asked only of protestants: Do you identify yourself as a Born Again or Evangelical Christian?
YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ALL PROTESTANTS | 42% | 51% | 6% | 0% |
Born Again Christian? | YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Yes | 48% | 46% | 6% | . |
No | 40% | 54% | 6% | 1% |
Don't Know | 14% | 76% | 10% | . |
Refused Answer | 67% | . | 33% | . |
Amendment 2 breakdown by religious service attendance
Asked of all voters polled: Apart from occasional weddings, baptisms, or funerals, how often do you attend religious services?
YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ALL | 48% | 44% | 7% | 1% |
Religious Attendance | YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Never | 72% | 24% | 4% | 0% |
A few times a year | 54% | 37% | 8% | 1% |
Once or twice a month | 44% | 49% | 6% | 1% |
Almost every week | 35% | 59% | 6% | . |
Every week | 27% | 63% | 10% | 1% |
Don't know | 34% | 66% | . | . |
Refused Answer | 35% | 48% | 4% | 13% |
About the Poll
The telephone survey of 781 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 7–12 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.
NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.