Drier air moved into Florida this week, eliminating the daily rain and storms.

So, is this the start of the dry season? Well, it's complicated.

What You Need To Know

  • Drier air has moved into much of the state
  • It's too early to know whether this is the start of the dry season
  • The worst of the rainy season is likely behind us

First, we need to understand the two major patterns that govern the weather for most of Florida, the rainy season and the dry season.

The rainy season, which runs from late May through mid-October, is when showers and storms develop daily from sea breeze interactions.

Sea breezes lift the warm, moist air to create the afternoon and evening storms the state is known for.

In the dry season, which is from late October into May, the pattern completely switches.

Dry air moves in, limiting the sea breeze from developing daily storms. Fronts drive almost all of the rainfall in the dry season, which only arrive every 1-2 weeks.

Unfortunately, there is no set date where we switch from the rainy season to the dry season.

Sometimes, the first cold front that moves through the area ends the rainy season. Other times, weak systems will knock down storm chances, but tropical moisture builds back in a week or two later.

Now let's talk about this year.

A cold front moved through late last week, bringing an end to the daily rain and storms across the area. But we don't know for sure if the dry air will hang on.

We have to wait because of how early the dry air has moved in. Tropical moisture may push back into the area in the next couple of weeks.

The earliest start of the dry season on record was late September for most of central Florida. The cold front last week would likely break those records.

We do feel very confident that the worst of the rainy season is over for the year. Even if tropical moisture does return, widespread showers and thunderstorms are unlikely now that we're in October.

So, it's unclear right now if the dry season is underway. But, one thing is certain. Drier and cooler air is imminent for the sunshine state in the next few weeks.