LAKELAND, Fla. — A study published in the journal Nature Medicine in January shows dementia cases are expected to double by 2060.
According to the study, "Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia," one million U.S. adults are expected to develop dementia that year. That's up from 514,000 in 2020.
Stefanie Wardlow, a regional research champion with the Alzheimer's Association in Florida, told Spectrum News the findings don't come as a surprise.
"We know the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease is large, and it's only going to get bigger. We strongly hope that everybody takes their brain seriously because we know in the future a lot of us are going to be impacted by the disease. If it's not ourselves, it's going to be somebody we know," said Wardlow, who's also a senior program manager with the Alzheimer's Association.
The study, funded by the National Institutes of Health to NYU Langone Health, found the lifetime risk of developing dementia after age 55 is 42 percent. According to NYU Langone, that's more than double the risk reported by previous studies and amounts to an average 35% risk for men and 48% risk for women.
Risk is even higher for Black adults who carry the APOE4 gene variant, at 45 to 60 percent. NYU Langone says the increase is linked to age, genetic factors, high rates of hypertension, diabetes, obesity, unhealthy diets, lack of exercise, and poor mental health.
Navigating a dementia diagnosis can be tough for patients and their families. Advocates say if the study is correct in its projected increase in cases, it will further stress already strained resources.
"We do know that we're going to need more direct care staff. So, between 2021 and 2031, more than a million additional direct care staff workers are going to be needed," said Wardlow. "Also, there's going to be a need for training and better ways to actually manage the disease process."
Shelly Asbury knows firsthand the importance of that need. Her father, Stanley Bartholomew, is one of the 580,000 people age 65 and older that the Alzheimer's Association says are living with Alzheimer's disease in Florida.
Asbury said the challenges began with trying to put a name to what was going on with her father.
"He's retired Navy. He's always been healthy. He's fun," she said. "When we first went to get some of his symptoms taken care of, of course it was kind of like, 'Oh, well, are you sure these things are happening? It's just old age. It's a progression of your dad's getting older.'"
Bartholomew is now 78 years old, but Asbury said she knew his symptoms were caused by more than age. She began going to doctor's appointments with him, pushing for additional testing.
"We would always be told, 'Oh, well, we don't like to put a label on anything,'" she said. "'There shouldn't be a label. There shouldn't be a stigma.' And so, every time we'd go to the doctor, I just kept fighting and fighting and fighting."
Asbury said it took about a year to finally get a diagnosis.
"I think there's a better path for a treatment plan, if you will, now that we have that diagnosis, and we kind of know the progression of the disease and what stages there are through the disease process," she said.
When asked about the study, Asbury, who's also on the executive committee of the Polk County chapter of the Alzheimer's Association, called the findings "scary."
"There's like, a projected 277% increase in the number of geriatricians that they're going to need to care for those people that have Alzheimer's. Right now, we just don't have the care available," she said.
Like Wardlow, Ralph Lindblad said the study's findings didn't shock him. He works with families to find the right memory care community for their loved ones through his business, Roblyn Sunrise Seniors.
"Those communities are becoming more and more limited on availability. I was at one just yesterday — they have none," said Lindblad.
He told Spectrum News more memory care facilities are needed, but something families may not be prepared for is the price. According to A Place for Mom, the median national cost of memory care is $6,200 per month.
"From the business side, if they build a new community and the price is going to be based upon that, then have they priced themselves out of the market just to be able to bring people in? Because people just don't have that kind of money available," Lindblad said.
Wardlow said an eight-year study is taking place in Florida to explore creating dementia care navigators. Going forward, Asbury said she'd also like to see better training for health care workers who deal with senior patients to help them recognize the signs of dementia. In the meantime, she urges people to advocate for themselves and their loved ones.
"Don't just sit back and trust the care providers all the time. Ask questions — if you don't understand anything, ask," Asbury said.
Actions Wardlow said people can take to keep their brains healthy and potentially lower their risk of developing dementia include staying physically active, eating more vegetables and leaner meat, avoiding foods that are processed or high in fat, avoiding head injury, and staying active socially.
She said anyone interested in taking part in the dementia care navigators study can call 1-800-272-3900 or contact the Florida Dept. of Elder Affairs and request a dementia care navigator.
According to the Alzheimer's Association, possible signs of dementia can include memory loss that disrupts daily life, challenges in planning or solving problems, and difficulty completing familiar tasks. The Alzheimer's Association, AARP, and the Mayo Clinic all offer more information about dementia diagnosis and resources.