As of December 18th, Buffalo has only seen 9.6 inches of snow for the season. Last year at this time, we had already seen 26.6 inches. That is also 12.5 inches below average to this point in the season.

What You Need To Know

  • Buffalo is below average with snow this season

  • A cold front moves in next week that could deliver snow

  • For now, a white Christmas looks possible

We have 3 inches of snow on the ground. However, with temperatures climbing above freezing for the next several days and no real chances to add to our snowpack, we’ll be back down to a muddy ground soon enough.

We are only a week away from Christmas, and I know many are dreaming of a white Christmas, including myself. We need at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for it to be an official white Christmas.

We did not have a white Christmas last year. We had a high of 50 degrees.

Our snowiest Christmas was in 2002 where we picked up 8.4 inches on Christmas Day alone. Going back through the records, we have about a 58% chance for a white Christmas.

While the near term is not looking good, a strong cold front may arrive just in time to deliver. Models continue to indicate a strong cold front swinging through on Christmas Eve.

While we start with rain and temperatures at least in the 40s, colder air looks to eventually win out, with temperatures falling to the 30s by afternoon with the rain possibly ending as snow.

How much snow is still to be determined. Again, we need at least an inch for an official white Christmas.


Here’s a snapshot of several of our models depicting snow leading up to Christmas morning, all with more than an inch of snow for Buffalo.

So, the odds are looking good.

Of course, timing is one of the most difficult things to forecast this far out, but the consensus for a strong cold front on Christmas Eve instead of Christmas Day does give us some leeway.

There will also be chances for lake-effect snow. Lake Erie’s water temperature as of the 17th is 42 degrees. That is 3 degrees above average, but it is well shy of the record of 46 degrees set 5 years ago.

While odds look good for a white Christmas this year, we’ll still have to see how much snow we get on the backside of this cold front and where any lake-effect snow sets up after.

In the meantime, keep dreaming. Hopefully, your dream comes true.

Are you curious about what the rest of the country can expect? Check out where we have the best chances for a white Christmas across the country, here.