TAMPA, FL — Tropical Storm Helene has developed and will pass west of the Tampa Bay area on Thursday as a hurricane, it will bring impacts to our area, especially at the coast.
A hurricane will likely track north and make landfall on Thursday night somewhere between Apalachicola and Dixie County.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida. The warning includes Hernando, Citrus and Pasco counties.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Citrus and Mantee counties.
We expect rapid intensification now as the ocean heat content is very high in the NW Caribbean.
A Flood Watch has been issued for our area from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. 3 to 6 inches of rain, potentially higher amounts depending on the future track.
While Helene will likely be a strong cat 2 or 3 storm as it makes its closest pass to Tampa Bay, it will be 70 to 120 miles off our coast, so the core of the strongest winds will remain offshore.
However, we could still see wind gusts near hurricane force at our coast (74 mph).
We are forecasting a life threatening storm surge of 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River. To the south, a surge of 6-10 feet through coastal Hernando County. From Pasco southward to Anna Maria, including Tampa Bay, a surge of 4-7 feet. South of Anna Maria, a surge of 3-5 feet.
For maximum wind gusts, we are forecasting 60-80 mph along the coast, 50-70 mph for Tampa Bay. Inland 40-50 mph and 30-45 mph further inland over Polk County.
Tornadoes are possible Thursday, especially across the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay area.
In terms of intensity, this storm is expected to become a major category 3 hurricane.
The outer bands of Helene will start coming into the area late in the day on Wednesday, but the brunt of the impacts will be felt later in the day on Thursday.
Conditions will improve late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Impacts will be largest for those living in flood-prone areas near the coast and those who live in non-well-built homes.
However, impacts will be less significant for those who live in well-built homes outside of flood zones.
Storm surge
Storm surge will be the biggest impact from the storm.
At this point, it appears the highest surge potential will coincide with the evening low tide, which is around 5 pm to 7 pm for most of our area on Thursday.
The next high tide would be after midnight, but Helene would likely be weakening and pulling away from our area, so the water should be coming down by then.
For coastal Hernando and Citrus counties, expect 6 to 10 feet of surge above the mean high tide mark.
Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough counties (including Tampa Bay) could see 4 to 7 feet of surge.
Coastal Manatee could see 3 to 5 feet of surge.
The lower number of this range is the most likely outcome, whereas the top number (i.e. 10 ft for Nature coast & 7 ft for Tampa Bay) is the worst-case scenario and much less likely to pan out.
So it is more likely for the lower end of the surge forecast to verify than the upper end.
To put this in perspective, the coastal flooding could be very similar to what happened during Idalia last year.
No storms are exactly alike, so it could be a bit lower or a bit higher, but Idalia may be a good approximation for this storm.
Rainfall
Since Helene will be a quick moving storm, rainfall will not be incredibly high.
However, our ground is saturated and we could pick up a quick 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts.
This could result in some localized flash flooding.
A low end tornado risk will be possible for the entire area, particularly on Thursday.
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