SEMINOLE COUNTY, Fla. — As the 2024 election cycle rolls on, political leaders on both sides of the aisle will be watching to see if the trends of recent election cycles continue. In suburban areas surrounding cities across Florida, voting trends have been shifting.

What You Need To Know

  • In 2020 in Seminole County, President Joe Biden got 7,000 more votes than Donald Trump, marking the first time in 75 years the county voted for a Democratic presidential candidate

  • UCF Associate Professor Aubrey Jewett says one of the main reasons for the political shift is new development of apartments and condos popping up all over the county, which he says attract younger residents from more Democratic areas who are typically more progressive

  • Jewett says that’s a trend we could see play out in other areas outside big cities across the state

In Seminole County, for example, trends took a Democratic shift in 2020. Despite Donald Trump winning the Florida on his way to defeat to Joe Biden, President Biden got 7,000 more votes in Seminole County. It was the first time in 75 years the county voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. 

Since 2018, according to the Seminole County Supervisor of Elections office, the county has seen a few more Democrats register to vote with 15,185 additional Republicans compared with 17,753 more Democrats. And 16,242 more people have registered as No Party Affiliation. 

University of Central Florida Associate Professor Aubrey Jewett says one of the main reasons for the political shift is a recent development of apartments and condos popping up all over the county, which he says attract younger residents from more Democratic areas, who are typically more progressive. And Jewett says that’s a trend we could see play out in other areas outside big cities across the state.

“You’re seeing more African American and Hispanic people moving into Seminole County,” said Jewett. “And so, it’s gotten more diverse and our politics have changed. That could certainly be happening in some other areas of the state, certainly Tampa, South Florida, even some places in North Florida, although maybe not quite as much there because the population growth in North Florida tends to be more from other southern states.”

Hailey Donahue and her boyfriend, Nathan Lax, have spent time going door-to-door in the county, encouraging people to get registered to vote.

“We want to make sure people are up to date on their registration. We have these buttons right here,” said Donahue.

They say the focus is making sure people are engaged in the political process.

“We’re making sure they’re up to date, and that everybody that is registered to vote is able to vote in the general since we have a major election coming up,” said Donahue.

They also know the political makeup of the county is changing.

“You’re seeing a lot of people moving into Seminole that are Democrat, you have a lot of families that are updating registration to be more Democrat, and especially with college students from the UCF area coming into Seminole, again you’re seeing more people come out and vote blue,” said Donahue.

Bruce Cherry is the chairman of the Seminole County Republican Party. He is skeptical of the idea that the political tides are turning for good.

“Because I live in a condo development myself — I’m a renter — and a lot of folks are relocating here from New York and California and places like that, and many of them are thankfully not bringing their politics with them,” said Cherry. “They have come to Florida because they realized this is a great place to live, and Seminole County is a great place to live. And so, it’s not necessarily true that people who live in apartments are Democrat, that those numbers are going to skew more liberal.”

Cherry says the Seminole GOP will be shoring up the county’s Republican vote, looking to turn those registered as No Party Affiliation to their side. And he believes some Democrats will swing back their way this election cycle.

“When you’re constantly being approached by people out at events and they go ‘Well, I’m a Democrat, but I’ve got to vote for,’ that tells us something,” said Cherry. “So no, we’re not feeling threatened or anything like that by the number of people moving to Seminole County,or whether or not the numbers tend to trend upward for Democrats, because we’re finding that a lot of them are not voting Democrat, or intend to.”

When Lax enrolled at UCF, he moved from a very Democratic area of South Florida and now lives in an apartment in Oviedo. He believes the changing political tides of the county are more than just more democrats moving to town.

“While we are seeing some change with the short-term people coming in and leaving, I think what we’re seeing in Seminole County is really for the long haul, and we’re going to see it move further blue as people come to understand just what’s going on out there,” said Lax.