ORLANDO, Fla. — The Orlando region is leading Florida’s trend of marginal job growth, although data suggests it has little to do with the state cutting off extended federal unemployment benefits.

Companies added more than 63,900 private-sector jobs in July 2021, including 10,000 jobs in the Orlando region.

July marked the state’s 15th consecutive month of job growth, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity reported. 

However, the numbers still trail those of pre-pandemic levels.

Florida has recovered 75% of jobs lost during the first peak of the pandemic in 2020, DEO Chief Economist Adrienne Johnston said Friday. Between February and April 2020, Florida lost 1.2 million jobs statewide. The state, as of July 2021, has recovered 953,400 of those jobs.

Florida’s July 2021 unemployment rate grew slightly to 5.1%, a marginal increase accredited to the overall return of people to the workforce.

Recovery appears to be full force

It is hard to “pinpoint the exact time frame” when the job market will match pre-pandemic levels, Johnston said, “…but we’re moving closer every month. As you said, there’s lots of demand out there, so employers are trying to hire, they have a lot of job openings. We saw record job ads, and those advertisements are only the ones we see online. Often those represent multiple jobs, so we know there’s a lot of demand out there.”

Data doesn't show whether end to extended jobless aid affected workforce

Despite the gain in people are returning to the workforce, the numbers fall short of summer predictions. State leaders across the United States had predicted a surge of returning workers when states shut off extended federal unemployment benefits.

In March, Congress approved extended federal unemployment benefits until September 2021.

Those benefits include $300 weekly benefits provided to eligible individuals above and beyond other federal or state benefits they may receive.

Florida is 1 of 26 states that elected to end distribution of those benefits, with state officials and business leaders saying the extra benefits were incentivizing people not to work. Two smaller beneficiary federal benefit programs are set to end in Florida on Sept. 4.

A judge in Tallahassee will hold a hearing Aug. 25 to hear arguments in a lawsuit filed against the state for ending the benefits. 

The state does not have specific data to determine whether last month’s job growth can be credited specifically to an end of federal benefits, Johnston said.

July was a point when many people indicated they felt the nation was in some way getting past COVID-19, with holiday events and crowded vacations in full swing — well before the first surge of the delta variant.

“People are confident, employers are hiring and individuals are finding jobs,” Johnston said. “We’re seeing more people employed in July than in June, so that’s all very positive, but we don’t have direct questions we ask that link it to the unemployment insurance benefits.”

Ending extended benefits did result in drop in spending, study shows

Data does exist, however, that is suggesting the shutdown of federal benefits is having little influence on the workforce, and significant impact on spending.

States that ended unemployment benefit programs did not see a significant increase in people returning to the workforce but did see spending drop by $2 billion, according to findings by researchers from University of Massachusetts Amherst, Harvard University, Columbia University, and University of Toronto released Friday. 

The analysis of primarily low-income Americans found in the states that ended benefits:

For every 8 workers who lost their benefits, 1 worker found a new job.

For every $1 of reduced benefits, spending fell by 52 cents.

That's not to say there's no influence at all

“Our results suggest that the modest increase in employment was driven by changes to UI that resulted in full exhaustion of benefits (ending Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation),” said Calvin Jahnke, research associate at Harvard Business School. “Florida was one of the states that only cut the extra $300, while continuing PUA and PEUC. In sum, it was likely the ending of PUA and PEUC (forcing people out of UI completely) that caused the modest increases we see in employment. Florida, having only ended the extra $300 payments, would not have seen the full effect of ending $300 as well as PUA and PEUC.”

Similar data reviews by companies including UKG and Homebase show the decision to reenter the workforce goes beyond the point of benefits.

“If you compare states that did reduce benefits in some way and compare them to states that kept them in place, it was actually counterintuitive,” said Ray Sandza, vice president of data and analytics at Homebase. “Those states that kept benefits in place saw higher job growth. However, the conclusion from that should not be that unemployment benefits are encouraging people back to work. What it more shows is that it is not the most important thing right now.”

Homebase is a payroll management company for small businesses.

Sandza said data show other concerns, including health care and concerns about the rapid spread of COVID-19, continues to be a major factor for those trying to reenter the workforce.

“We’re still behind by like 15% to where we were before COVID began, and unemployment benefits are not the first order of things impacting,” Sandza said. “It’s the same stuff it was before. People are still worried about public health.”

With Florida seeing record-level COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continuing because of the spread of the delta variant, questions are arising about whether Florida’s job market will hold steady.

A number of travel and leisure companies, including hotels and airlines, have reported significant customer cancellations in recent weeks because of concerns about the delta variant.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw a flattening out or a reduction coming soon,” Sandza said.

Finding work is easier said than done

“I never thought in a million years I’d be sitting here, 16 months later,” Jennifer Dotson of Orlando said. “I’ve never, never been this long without a job. I’ve worked since I was 14 years old.”

Dotson, who has spent much of her life working in retail, was a convenience store manager in Orlando when she, like others, found herself out of work in spring 2020.

Despite a series of health issues, Dotson said she spends much of her time applying for work that will make ends meet. That has proved to be more difficult, in addition to being left without the extended federal unemployment benefits.

“Taking that $300 away, I don’t have enough to pay the bills with regular unemployment,” Dotson said. “I know people will say ‘go back to work, go back to work,’ and I’m trying. I put out dozens of job searches, I fill out applications every week and every day, and I’ve had one call back in a year.”

Dotson said she is still owed nearly $900 from Florida’s DEO, which may not seem like much to most but would go a long way.

Like most job seekers, Dotson said Florida ending federal unemployment benefits is not a factor in encouraging them to get back to work. They want to work, but doing without the extra $300 is reducing their ability to keep stable housing and transportation to find stable work.