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Tuesday marks Day 2 under a flood watch due to the high threat of heavy rain that may lead to localized flooding.
After a week of heavy rain with more on the way, it won't take much to trigger localized flooding in poor drainage areas, streams and creeks. Places that have been hard-hit the past few days run the greatest threat, but the chance for rain today is an areawide 70 percent. One to 3 inches of rain may fall in spots today with two-day totals potentially over 4 to 6 inches localized within the watch area. Plenty of moisture will be streaming in from the southwest in advance of an approaching front that is in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor this morning. This system does have some drier air behind it, but we won't fully feel the effects of it until Thursday when the rain chances start to abate.
Plan on scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon. Most activity will travel from west to east across the peninsula. Clouds will only allow limited sun to filter through. Highs will reach the upper-80s inland and low- to mid-80s at the coast. Some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning in addition to torrential downpours. Southwest to west winds will be in place all day, but as the front slowly pushes through, it will send winds around to the northwest and eventually to the north behind it overnight.
We won't see rapid-drying behind the front, though. A few showers will hang on overnight and there will be enough residual moisture behind the front to keep the rain chance at 50 percent on Wednesday.
High pressure will push the front away from Central Florida on Thursday allowing some drier air to build in but only temporarily. This will help scale back the rain chances to 40 percent through Friday. The break from the rain will be short-lived. We'll be tracking another front by Saturday, which will bring in another round of numerous showers and storms for the first half of the weekend. The long-range outlook shows that the air behind this front will be noticeably drier, and once that arrives, we'll see a more meaningful end to the high rain chances.
In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure west of Bermuda has become Invest 97. There is about a 10 percent chance for it to become a subtropical low within three to five days. At this time, there is no concern of it impacting the U.S. All other areas in the tropics are quiet.
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