ROCHESTER, N.Y. — As the dockworkers continue their strike, economists are keeping watch on how long strikers will stay on the picket lines.


What You Need To Know

  • As the dockworkers continue their strike, economists are keeping watch on how long strikers will stay on the picket lines

  • The first casualties of the strike are expected to be bananas and other agricultural products

  • If the strike lasts until the end of October, economist believes it will affect the holiday shopping season

Some estimates say a strike lasting just one week would cost the U.S. economy more than $2 billion.

If it goes on much longer than that, it could make a dent in your bank account.

“When you think about the east coast ports, that's nearly 50% of our imports," said Brighton Securities financial analyst George Conboy. "And the U.S. is an enormous importing nation."

It’s the leverage more than 45,000 dockworkers have as they walk the picket lines calling for higher wages and guarantees of no automation.

“Early on, there's not an easy way to predict what we'll see," Conboy said. "What is fairly easy to predict is the economic impact of this strike."

Conboy says the severity of the economic impact of the strike depends on how long it lasts. He says the longer it goes, the worse it will be.

With the picket lines shutting down 36 U.S. ports from Maine to Texas, the first casualties of the strike are agricultural products.

“Farmers and co-ops may be hurt because they can't sell their goods," Conboy said. "Consumers may be hurt if something they're buying that's imported can't get into the country."

Among the first products to rot while waiting for the loading and unloading of containers are bananas.

“Bananas are not a U.S. commodity," he said. "You will see them peter out pretty rapidly because, as we all know, today's green banana is next week's garbage. But more than a day or two with bananas, you're not going to get them into your local Wegmans [or] into your local Tops in time to buy them and still be fresh. Bananas may be one of the earliest, so to speak, canaries in the coal mine. If we can't get them, you're going to see an empty banana shelf in your local supermarket.”

As far as stocking up?

“You can't stock up on bananas?" he said. "They're going to run out after a few days and there's no way to tell for sure what's going to run short. So, I don't think this is a runoff to the store and buy bread and milk like we would for a blizzard, but you will start to see things that you least expect.”  

Shoppers are weighing in.

“’Cause we need certain produce to make certain things," Trina Herrang said. "Like, definitely if bananas going to be a problem, we need that potassium. So, it will affect us."

“I’m not really concerned," Andrew Zioto said. "I guess we’ll see in like two or three weeks if it’s still going on like how much of an increase we see."

“I mean, it concerns me, but how much can it really concern me? Mike Underwood said. "Because something else is going to come around the corner tomorrow that’s probably going to be even more concerning."

Conboy says by the end of the first week, the agricultural products take a hit. For the second week, expect to see a backlog and price increases in other consumer products. And if the strike lasts to the end of October, it will affect the holiday shopping season.

“[It is] entirely possible, if the strike goes on for anything more than a couple of weeks," he said. "Some of your Christmas supply will be restricted. The reality is, even if the strike is settled after, let's say, or by the end of October, that's going to put a ripple through the entire supply chain right into December. So, seeing your Christmas goods, not just under the tree, but on your retailers’ shelves, may be questionable if the strike goes on.”

So far, stores are not seeing much panic shopping yet in most places, but that could change should the striking dock workers hold their ground.