An out of season cold front is making its way through the southeastern states and looks to slowly drop through the Florida Peninsula this week. This is the same front that brought a great deal of severe weather to the eastern United States this weekend, and it is expected to produces some changes in our pattern for a few days. A ribbon of moisture associate with the boundary will enter the forecast area late tonight bringing high rain chances to Central Florida on Tuesday. As the front works to the south, rain chances will drop again for the area on Wednesday and Thursday, with moisture and higher rain chances building back up the peninsula on Friday.
The deep westerly flow ahead of the front and its parent trough of low pressure over the eastern states ushered in some drier air in the middle layers of the atmosphere today, reducing the coverage of storms over the area. The west coast sea breeze was quick to move inland and across the peninsula, while the east coast sea breeze was not able to form in the westerly wind pattern. The large scale pattern meant fewer afternoon storms and hotter temperatures for everyone including east coast beaches. Any late storms that were able to form will move quickly offshore this evening and most activity will have dissipated by midnight, although moisture ahead of the southward moving cold front may bring some rain to the area overnight into early Tuesday morning. With the frontal boundary working its way into North Florida on Tuesday, we will see increasing cloud cover and a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. After warm morning lows in the middle to upper 70s, afternoon highs are expected to climb into the lower to middle 90s for everyone in Central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day on Tuesday.
As the weak front slowly advances south through the area, winds will turn to the northwest behind the front and will begin moving a slightly drier air mass down the peninsula. Some lingering moisture will keep a slight chance for rain in the outlook on Wednesday and Thursday, but coverage of afternoon storms will be unseasonably low. High temperatures in the lower to middle 90s will continue to be the norm this week, with rain chances falling to 20% or less on Thursday. By Friday, moisture will begin to build back north up the peninsula and we will see rain chances return to normal for the weekend.
In the tropics, a disturbance is slowly taking shape in the far eastern equatorial waters of the Atlantic ocean. The low is moving west at about 15 to 20 mph and should be approaching the Caribbean islands by the end of the week. While there are some inhibiting factors in the environment ahead of the system. It seems likely this low will become our next tropical cyclone sometime this week. Long-range models show the system clipping the northern Lessor Antilles and recurring north east of the Bahamas and northeast east of the east coast of the the United states. At this time, it does not appear as this system will have a direct impact on our weather, other than throwing off some swell into the near shore Atlantic waters sometime next week.
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