A Special Tropical Weather Outlook update was issued Wednesday morning to discuss the possibility that an extended area of low pressure north of the Bahamas may deepen somewhere off the Florida east coast late Friday.

Weather models show an area of low pressure, but are depicting a weak, possibly broad low. In weather terms, the atmospheric pressure in model runs don't drop this low below 1,005 milibars (and by then, it's near the South Carolina coast.) If it were to drop below 1,000 mb, we would be more concerned of a potential tropical/subtropical system.

We also have some pretty good shear and dry air in the atmosphere, which is not conducive for rapid deepening. 

As of Wednesday morning, low pressure is forecast to begin developing Friday. The models differ on location, but it will be somewhere off the Florida east coast and north of the Bahamas. As it develops, it is expected to move north toward Georgia and the Carolinas this weekend. 

Depending on where this low develops and how broad it is, we could be looking at a decent shot of showers and storms Saturday and Sunday, or a fairly dry holiday weekend.

If broad low pressure develops closer to the Florida coastline, anticipate higher-end rain chances. If it develops farther off shore or becomes a little more compact, expect dry air to be pulled over the peninsula lowering rain chances.

The main story: Don't cancel your holiday weekend plans.

In any case, expect a high rip current risk and rough surf on our east coast from Friday night into Memorial Day.

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