Here's what you need to know about Tropical Storm Erika:

  • Location at 11 p.m. Wednesday: 16.7 N, 60.2 W
  • How far is it?
    • 110 mi. ESE of Antigua
    • 1,431 mi. ESE of Miami
    • 1,520 mi. ESE of Melbourne
    • 1,566 mi. ESE of Orlando
    • 1,577 mi. SE of Daytona Beach
  • Winds: 45 mph
  • Movement: W at 16 mph
  • Pressure: 1,006 mb / 29.71 inches
  • Jump to: Interactive Tracking Map ▼

Erika has certainly gotten everyone's attention. With the official forecast Wednesday  looking like an arrow pointing right at Florida, people are concerned.

It is very important to note that the forecast for Erika is highly uncertain for several reasons.

First, the short term forecast: Right now, Erika is undergoing some moderate shear from the west. This shear has been strong enough to blow the convection right off the top, exposing the center. This leaves Erika as a disorganized system. The shear over the next 48 hours is supposed to strengthen. So, it is possible Erika may have a very tough time even surviving that time period. Some computer models diminish Erika to an open wave, which is the same fate Hurricane Danny met.

Second, the longer term prospects for Erika's position and intensity are highly uncertain due to whether or not Erika survives the short term, if it does survive how much is left, and frankly, the various discrepancies among the computer models. A stronger Erika would likely be drawn poleward, which means it will move more northerly. That should keep it off the east coast of Florida and some models even keep it east of the Bahamas.

A weaker Erika — an open wave or low-end tropical storm — may have a chance to move into South Florida. That scenario could give us some slightly higher rain chances heading into Monday. This scenario would mean not much of a wind threat, either.

Obviously, if Erika takes a path closer to the east coast of Florida, there could be some minor to moderate wind issues late Sunday or early Monday.

Unfortunately for forecast confidence, the computer models have been all over the place. We will have a much better idea after the next 24–48 hours after Erika has been through the strong wind shear. We will keep you advised with our Tropical Updates at :21 and :51 after the hour.

See Wednesday's latest advisory for Erika ▼


Interactive Hurricane Tracker


Tropical Storm Erika Advisory

11 p.m. — Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

  • None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

  • Anguilla
  • Saba, St. Eustatius
  • St. Maarten
  • St. Martin
  • St. Barthelemy
  • Montserrat
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • St. Kitts and Nevis
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques
  • Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

  • Guadeloupe
  • North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo
  • Southeastern Bahamas
  • Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika. A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the Dominican Republic later today.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.7 north, longitude 60.2 west.

Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph and a west to west-northwestward motion with the same forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and east of the center. No significant change in strength or perhaps some slight weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is 1,006 mb (29.71 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday.

Rainfall: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Friday.

Next Advisory
Next complete advisory at 5 a.m.

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