Florida Decides Poll: Gov. Scott leads Charlie Crist by 6 points

If former Gov. Charlie Crist is going to recapture the Florida governor's mansion, he needs to work harder.

That's the bottom line of a new Florida Decides Statewide Poll released Tuesday. The poll surveyed voters in the week after the Florida Primary -- Aug. 27 -  Aug. 31.

The poll, conducted by the Graham Center for Public Service, found that likely voters were more inclined to vote for Scott than Crist, even when Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie is in the mix.

Scott held a six-point advantage over Crist, 44 percent to 38 percent. When Wyllie was added to the poll, Scott's lead over Crist was reduced, but the change was minimal.

And most important for Scott, who has struggled with his approval ratings during his entire administration, 47 percent approve of the job he is doing as governor.

University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus attributes this boost for Scott to the improving economy.

"The improvement in the state economy coupled with ads by Scott claiming credit for the economic revival in Florida have been instrument in the Governor's recent surge," MacManus said.

It also helped that Scott took to the airwaves well before Crist.

"The fact is there is a whole lot of people now in Central florida who have jobs that did not have jobs when he took office," said News 13 political analyst Michelle Ertel. "Can he take direct responsibility for that? I think he should. I think if Charlie Crist were in that position he would too. The fact is we have a Republican governor and a Republican legislature and things are getting better."

Our pollsters said that may not be all because of Crist, but that does appear to be the perception of voters. Seventy-one percent say the governor has a great deal of control over Florida's economy.

News 13 political analyst Jeremiah Jaspon said Crist needs to highlight Scott's failure to create new jobs. "He's probably going to attack the fact that Rick Scott has given a lot of tax breaks to companies to create jobs who have come out here, taken our tax dollars and have not created a single job."

More people also said they could trust Scott than they could Crist. While 45 percent of voters said Scott cannot be trusted, 53 percent of voters said Crist could not be trusted. Crist also fared worse when voters were asked whether he was honest and ethical. Only 35 percent of respondents regarded Crist as honest, while 39 percent of voters said Scott was honest and ethical.

The telephone survey of 814 registered Florida voters -- all likely to vote in the November election -- was conducted Aug. 27-31 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 by the University of Florida’s Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party identification and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution of age groups, party identification and media market in the Florida Voter File.

Florida Decides Poll

1. In November 2014, there will be an election for Florida governor. To what extent are you interested in the election? Would you say...

2. How likely are you to vote in the election for governor and other political offices in November? Where would you place yourself on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means there is no chance you will vote and 10 means that you are absolutely certain that you will vote?

3. If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Rick Scott and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote?

4. If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Rick Scott, Charlie Crist and Adrian Wyllie, for whom would you vote? 

5. Do you happen to know which candidate for governor used to have a different party affiliation than he has now?     

6. Which of these words best describe Rick Scott?

7. Which of these words best describe Charlie Crist?

8. Do you approve or disapprove of Rick Scott's job as governor?

9. If you recall when Crist was governor from 2007 to 2011, did you approve or disapprove of his job as governor?

10. Which of these best desribe your opinion of Florida's economy?

11. Is the condition of Florida's economy something the governor can do a lot about, or is that beyond any governor's control?