A system in the central Atlantic has a high chance of forming into our next tropical system.

Invest 96L remains just north of Puerto Rico. Over the next two days, the storm has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The probability increases to 80 percent within the next five days.

If it does form, it will be named Cristobal. Most long-range models keep the storm east of the Bahamas next week, with one slightly closer to the Sunshine State.

Airlines and cruise ship companies are monitoring the progress of a tropical disturbance approaching the Lesser Antilles at the eastern end of the Caribbean.

Jennifer de la Cruz, a spokeswoman for Carnival Cruise Lines, said the Florida-based company has one ship that will have its itinerary slightly modified to steer clear of the system's predicted path. That ship, the Carnival Splendor, will drop a port call in the Turks and Caicos Islands and stop instead at Florida's Port Canaveral.

Major air carriers such as American Airlines said they were watching the weather system but there were no itinerary changes by Thursday afternoon.

Regional airline LIAT said it planned to cancel three flights on Friday, affecting travel to islands including St. Maarten, St. Kitts and St. Thomas.

HOW DO THE MODELS WORK?

When a tropical wave becomes of ‘special interest’ to the National Hurricane Center, future projection models start to run on the wave.  The models are called ‘guidance’ since they act as a guide on forecast path, intensity, direction, speed, as well as other parameters.  A probability is then calculated on it organizing into a tropical depression within 48 hours and 120 hours.

Essentially, these forecast tracks run by dozens of models are used to help determine whether this tropical wave will intensify and where it is most likely to go. Forecasters look for consistency in the models, as in a more likely path based on the consensus of the model tracks.

When a center of circulation is found, it may be classified as a tropical depression should peak winds remain less than 38 mph. If the storm is capable of winds over 39 mph, it will be considered a tropical storm and given the name Cristobal.

See the latest models on our Tropical page.