Tropical Storm Arthur is almost Hurricane Arthur.
The storm is moving north toward the Carolinas, and NOAA issued a Hurricane warning for North Carolina. The state's outer bankers are now under a mandatory evacuation order. A mandatory evacuation of Hatteras Island begins 5 a.m. Thursday
All tropical storm watches in Florida have been cancelled. Parts of South Carolina and Virginia are under a tropical storm warning.
Central Florida remains away from the concentrated significant rain and wind, although the other bands rotating around will continue to send us occasional rain and gusty conditions. Some of the heavier showers will affect inland locations as well, but the threat is lower.
As with any tropical system, we will also have to monitor the risk of possible beach erosion, dangerous rip currents and rough surf. Hazardous boating conditions are projected through midweek, but conditions will improve in time for the July 4th holiday.
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory
11 p.m. — Arthur has not yet become a hurricane.
Watches and warnings
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City northward to Duck
* Pamlico Sound
* eastern Albemarle Sound
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to south of Surf City
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Any deviation of the forecast track to the left, or an increase in the forecast size of Arthur would likely require the issuance of hurricane warnings for all or part of the Hurricane Watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to south of Surf City
* north of Duck to Cape Charles Light Virginia not including Cheasepeake Bay
* western Albemarle Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests along the United States East Coast north of the warning area, primarily in southeastern New England, should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Arthur.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located by satellite and radar near latitude 30.6 north, longitude 79.1 west.
Arthur is moving toward the north near 8 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Thursday night.
The core of Arthur is expected to slowly approach the coasts of South and North Carolina Thursday and Thursday night.
Maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Arthur is expected to become a hurricane Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb, or 29.18 inches.
Hazards affecting land
Wind — Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Thursday afternoon, and are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Thursday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Thursday night.
Storm surge — The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
North Carolina Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...2 to 4 ft
southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina...1 to 3 ft
extreme southeastern Virginia...1 to 2 ft
The highest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow. The surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Rainfall — Arthur is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the eastern Florida Peninsula. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches...are expected over coastal areas of North Carolina through Friday. Rains associated with Arthur are expected to diminish across the northwestern Bahamas today.
Surf — Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the east-central coast of Florida. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. These hazardous conditions will gradually spread northward along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today.
Next advisory
Complete advisory: 5 a.m.